Sociology Index


Demographic transition is the transformation of a population accompanying the change from an agrarian economy to an industrial economy. The demographic transition period involves declining death rates while birth rates remain high and therefore leading to population growth. Most countries experience important demographic changes. The demographic transition from a phase of rapid population growth to one in which population growth is low. When a country experiences a mortality decline and fertility rises, both contributing to a rise in population growth. The reduction in mortality causes continuous decline in fertility. This pattern is called the demographic transition.


Europe's Second Demographic Transition. van de Kaa, Dirk J. 
Abstract: Europe's first demographic transition was propelled by a concern for family and offspring. By 1985, fertility rates in Europe were below the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman in all but Albania, Ireland, Malta, Poland, and Turkey, following a steady decline from a 1965 postwar peak well above 2.5 in Northern, Western, and Southern Europe and an erratic trend from a lower level in Eastern Europe. Natural decrease (fewer births than deaths) had begun already in Austria, Denmark, Hungary, and the Federal Republic of Germany and can be expected shortly in many other countries. According to current UN medium projections, Europe's population (minus the USSR) will grow only 6% between 1985 and 2025, from 492 to 524 million and 18.4% of the population in 2025 will be 65 and over. The decline to low fertility in the 1930s during Europe's 1st demographic transition was propelled by a concern for family and offspring. Behind the 2nd transition is a dramatic shift in norms toward progressiveness and individualism, which is moving Europeans away from marriage and parenthood. Cohabitation and out-of-wedlock fertility are increasingly acceptable; having a child is more and more a deliberate choice made to achieve greater self-fulfillment. Many Europeans view population decline and aging as threats to national influence and the welfare state. As used in Eastern Europe, coupled with some restrictions on legal abortion, such incentives have not managed to boost fertility back up to replacement level. Only measures compatible with the shift to individualism might slow or reverse the fertility decline, but a rebound to replacement level seems unlikely and long-term population decline appears inevitable for most of Europe.

Demographic transition in Europe. George Hondroyiannis, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and Harokopio University, Evangelia Papapetrou, University of Athens and Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department.

Demographic Transition Abstracts

The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor
Bruno L. S. Falcao, Rodrigo R. Soares - NBER Working Paper No. 12838
Abstract: Increases in female labor force participation and reductions in the gender wage-gap as part of a single process of demographic transition.

The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth. ODED GALOR, Brown University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Minerva Center for Economic Growth Working Paper No. 4-04. Abstract: The demographic transition swept the world in the course of the last century. Various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition, assessing their empirical evidence validity.

Demographic Transition, Family Structure, and Income Inequality
C. Y. Cyrus Chu, National Taiwan University, Lily Jiang, Tamkang University.
Empirical evidence analysis using Taiwanese data shows that the pattern of Gini coefficients is significantly affected by the above-mentioned age composition factor. The implications for developing countries which have recently gone through demographic transition.

Stages of the Demographic Transition from a Child’s Perspective: Family Size, Cohort Size, and Schooling. David Lam and Leticia Marteleto.
Abstract: The demographic transition as experienced in developing countries generates a sequence of changes in family size and cohort size that may have implications for resources available to children. A new characterization of stages of the demographic transition from a child’s perspective.

Population Growth and the Demographic Transition in Kenya 
Robert A. Wortham - International Sociology, Vol. 8, No. 2, 197-214 (1993)
The applicability of demographic transition theory to the study of population growth and development in Kenya.

One explanation for the demographic transition in developing countries 
Mukesh Eswaran, Department of Economics, University of British Columbia
The motive for having children is assumed to be old age security. It is shown that reductions in child mortality can induce a demographic transition.

Demographic Transition in Asia and its Consequences 
Authors: Hussain, Athar; Cassen, Robert; Dyson, Tim
Abstract:: This article demographic transition in Asia. East Asia, with its low population growth rate and fertility rate is in the final stages of the demographic transition.

Epidemiologic and Demographic Transition: A Typology of Latin America and Caribbean Countries. 
Bacallao, Jorge - Obesity and Poverty. A New Public Health Challenge, Obesity and Poverty.

Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition, McNicoll, Geoffrey. - Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 210. NY: Population Council. (PDF)

An Assessment of the Demographic Transition in China 
Jianjun Ji, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin - Journal of Developing Societies.
Many Chinese scholars even argue that the country has already entered a post-demographic transition period. China’s demographic transition with regard to five aspects. The study concludes that the demographic transition in China is not yet finished but still under way.

Sergei V. ZAKHAROV, Center for Demography and Human Ecology Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow).
Russia is entering the Second Demographic Transition and returning to the family formation model is not possible.

Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth
Abstract: Investigates the dynamic interactions among demographic transition, income distribution, and economic growth. The documented facts about epochs of demographic transition.

Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update
Johan Surkyn, Ron Lesthaeghe 
Abstract: The empirical tracing of the connection between a variety of value orientations and the life course choices and family formation. The existence of such a connection is a crucial element in the theory of the Second Demographic Transition.

Completing the Demographic Transition
John Bongaarts, Rodolfo A. Bulatao
Abstract: Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion in population.

Policy Implications of the Next World Demographic Transition
Sarah F. Harbison, Warren C. Robinson
Abstract: The latest in a series of such demographic transitions stretching back into prehistory.

Life cycle saving and the demographic transition in East Asia 
by Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller.
Abstract: We simulate the effect of the demographic transition on saving rates. Actual interest rates is treated as exogenous and is unaffected by savings behavior or demographic transition. 

Saving, wealth, and the demographic transition in East Asia 
by Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller
Abstract: Anticipates a rapid decline in saving as countries approach the end of their demographic transitions.

Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia 
David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson - East Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-age population growing at a much faster rate thereby expanding the per capita productive capacity of East Asian economies. East Asian countries had institutions and policies that helped realize the growth potential created by the demographic transition.

The implications of the demographic transition for women, girls and gender equality: a review of developing country evidence - Kirsty McNay - Pauling Centre for Human Sciences, University of Oxford.
The demographic transition is a global phenomenon in which most developing countries are now participating. This paper presents a review of the evidence on these consequences in developing countries. Demographic transition is a positive process for women, but there is no link to improvements in female status and gender equality.

The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change
Ronald Lee
Abstract: Demographic transition trends reflect profound changes in risks and behavior for individuals and families.

What Future Expects Humanity After the Demographic Transition Time? 
Kobelev, L. Ya.; Nugaeva, L. L. 
Abstract: Humankind future existence after time of demographic transition.

The “Second Demographic Transition” in the U.S.: Spatial Patterns and Correlates. Lesthaeghe, Ron Jean Leopold, Lisa Neidert. - PSC Research Report No. 06-592. March 2006.
With rising ages at marriage, increases in single person households, and higher rates of childlessness, United States is on its way to a second demographic transition.

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology - Dalton Conley, Gordon C. McCord, Jeffrey D. Sachs - NBER Working Paper No. 12892.
Abstract: Africa has not yet gone through a demographic transition to reduced mortality and fertility rates.

Gender Equity Restricted: Indian Demographic Transition Delayed. by William M. Alexander.
Processes of the demographic transition with reference to India in the twentieth century.